CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-02-25T19:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23942/-1
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME with a bulk portion predominantly to the West in STEREO A COR2 imagery. No SOHO imagery available during initial entry. Source is a filament eruption and simultaneous M6.3 flare from AR13229. An EUV wave is best seen in GOES/SUVI 284 starting at 2023-02-25T18:54Z. A post-eruptive arcade is present in most SDO/AIA wavelengths following the eruption. Likely CME arrival (shock and sheath) are seen at 2023-02-27T10:15Z, as jump in magnetic field to over 20 nT, accompanied by sharp drop in density and temperature. This signature is being discussed with LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T10:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-28T04:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1339.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 772.677 Acceleration: -0.566203 Duration in seconds: 205046.22 Duration in days: 2.3732202 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.57 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 656.6 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 28/02/2023 Time: 04:35 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 21.65 hour(s)
Difference: -18.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-02-26T12:36Z
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